Jaitley said inflation has been under control for long and is likely to remain so on the back of good monsoon and unlikely spike in oil prices.
The Sensex jumped 412.23 points on Friday, braving heavy volatility during the day, amid the Reserve Bank of India maintaining status quo on the benchmark lending rate and buying in index heavyweights Reliance Industries Limited and ITC. The BSE Sensex climbed 412.23 points or 0.70 per cent to settle at 59,447.18. During the day, the benchmark hit a high of 59,654.44 and a low 58,876.36. The Nifty also gained 144.80 points or 0.82 per cent to finish at 17,784.35.
This is the fifth straight cut in rates by the Reserve Bank of India in as much policy reviews in 2019, and takes the total quantum of reductions to 1.35 per cent.
.jpg)
2014 made a lot of promises; can the new year deliver?
'To the believers of crypto regulations, I have only one question to ask, how will you regulate it?'
In order to provide an impetus to digital funds movement, it has been decided to do away with the charges levied by the RBI for transactions processed in the RTGS and NEFT systems, RBI said.
The government has extended the term of Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das by another three years upto December 2024, according to an official order.
The biggest risk to India's growth outlook is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially if these tensions spread to the Asian region, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Wednesday. Varma, in an interview to PTI, said that inflation and inflationary expectations appear to be moderating and high inflation will certainly not become the 'norm' in the country. He is cautiously optimistic about the Indian economy as after the pandemic abated, consumption demand has begun to recover though the recovery is uneven across sectors and industries.
Market breadth depicted gains with 1,476 advances over 1,403 declines on the BSE. 140 stocks remained unchanged.
The repo rate has been left unchanged at 4 per cent, Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the decisions taken by the central bank's MPC.
RBI is expected to discuss about the impact of GST in its monetary policy.
Tata Steel was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, climbing 2.11 per cent, followed by Infosys, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Kotak Bank, M&M and PowerGrid. NSE Nifty jumped 142.05 points to end at 17,605.85.
For July-September, it pegged CPI-based retail inflation at 4.2 per cent which it saw firming up to 4.8 per cent in the second half of the current fiscal.
Priorities include the amendments of the Companies Act and the Motor Vehicle Act
In the current fiscal so far, retail inflation stabilised around 5 per cent, while wholesale price-based inflation averaged around 2.9 per cent during April-December.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation forecast for 2021-22 to 5.7 per cent due to supply side constraints, high crude oil and raw materials cost. The RBI in June had pegged the retail inflation estimate at 5.1 per cent for the current financial year. The RBI has the mandate to keep inflation in a band of 2-4 per cent, with a tolerance level of 2 per cent on either side.
Fintech companies believe that the impact of Reserve Bank of India's order last week on unsecured loans will be visible in six to 12 months and prompt them to diversify and strengthen their secured portfolio. Fintechs which source funds through banks or non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) are looking at quickly building their secured portfolio options to at least 40 per cent of their total portfolio. "Over the medium to long term, as part of our product strategy, we are evaluating secured products which can be enabled over a digital platform" said Yogi Sadana, the founder of Zype, a lending-focussed fintech.
India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
The broader 50-issue NSE Nifty too slipped from its record high, shedding 10.30 points or 0.09 per cent to end at 11,346.20.
A rise in petrol and diesel consumption can help the government cut cesses on the fuels by Rs 4.5 a litre without impacting revenue collections of FY21, and help cool off the pressure on inflation, domestic rating agency ICRA said on Friday. Petrol consumption is estimated to increase 14 per cent in 2021-22 and diesel by 10 per cent on the lower base, rise in mobility and economic recovery, ICRA said. The rating agency added that it will result in an additional Rs 40,000 crore in revenue for the government through higher collections of the cess.
Kotak Bank was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, falling 3.71 per cent, followed by RIL, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, PowerGrid, IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, HDFC and ITC.
The growth in the contact-intensive portion of the economy trailed our expectation, highlighting how imperative it is for confidence to improve, either through accelerated vaccinations or otherwise, to drive a sustainable recovery in these sectors, asserts Aditi Nayar.
This is contrary to the expectations of a majority of analysts predicting for another hike given the rise in inflation lately, including domestic ratings agency Icra
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
If imputed inflation for April and May is used, then you have inflation of over 6 per cent for two consecutive quarters, which is a worrying signal for the RBI.
The MPC states that the 4 external members will have a tenure of four years each.
Five of the six external members had suggested that the central bank should reduce the policy rate.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel on Saturday exhorted banks to reduce their lending rates to push credit demand in laggard segments, saying banks have benefited from influx of low-cost deposits and its previous repo rate cuts.
Analysts at Bank of America Merill Lynch said that fears of inflation getting "generalised" are overdone, as only two sub-categories of fuel and light and housing (accounting for 22 per cent of the basket) have seen a price-rise above the headline 5.2 per cent.
Crisil Research expects retail inflation to rise 60 basis points to 4 per cent this fiscal from 3.4 per cent in 2018-19.
'If rate cuts happen, bond yields will come down and investors will make mark-to-market capital gains on them.'
M V Subramanian says there is an imperative need for collective responsibility to tackle inflation, prices and availability of essential commodities, and not rely on inflation targeting alone.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the GDP forecast for the current financial year at 9.5 per cent and flagged global semiconductor shortages, elevated commodity prices and potential global financial market volatility as downside risks to economic growth. In his address after the three-day meeting of the rate-setting panel, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said recovery in aggregate demand gathered pace in August-September, and it is reflected in high-frequency indicators, like railway freight traffic; port cargo; cement production; electricity demand; e-way bills; GST and toll collections. "The ebbing of infections, together with improving consumer confidence, has been supporting private consumption," he said, and added the pent-up demand and the festival season should give further fillip to urban demand in the second half of the financial year.
The recovery in the Indian services sector was sustained in November as new work orders supported business activity growth and the first rise in employment in nine months, a monthly survey said on Thursday.
The stock markets, which had opened in the green on rate cut hopes, tumbled after the monetary policy announcement.
On one hand, Operation Greens should help to smoothen volatility in the prices of vegetables, whereas the proposal to enhance and extend minimum support prices to augment farmer incomes, may emerge as an inflation risk.
The Union government could target a fiscal deficit of 5.8-6 per cent of nominal GDP for 2023-24, and it should continue its capital expenditure push and look to simplify the personal income tax regime, economists recommended Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her team during their pre-Budget interaction on Monday. Starting last week, Sitharaman had eight pre-Budget consultations this time. More than 110 invitees representing seven stakeholder groups participated in these meetings, the finance ministry said in a statement. The stakeholder groups included representatives and experts from agriculture and agro-processing industry; industry, infrastructure & climate change; financial sector and capital markets; services and trade; social sector; trade unions and labour organisations; and economists.
Deficits could come under more pressure in coming years as states implement their own Pay Commissions.
In case the repo rate keeps trending downwards, borrowers can expect a downward revision of their MCLR-linked loans.
The Reserve Bank may be hitting the end of its tolerance for high inflation and will most likely hike interest rates in the first half of 2022, analysts said on Friday. The central bank will also start rolling back its accommodative policies which have led to easy liquidity conditions, they said. The view from analysts came even as inflation cooled down to 5.6 per cent for July, after two months of breaching the upper end of the RBI's tolerance band of 6 per cent.
